2004-09-22
The Horse Race
DATA: The horse race numbers in Electoral Votes as reported by Zogby (reported in BOLD ITALICS, I might add.)
That's funny, it seems I recently read, "Bush clear leader in poll" on the cover of USA Today. (I don't actually buy the USA Today, but do catch the headlines in their newspaper boxes occasionally.) Of course, you and I and USA Today all realize that national polls mean squat in American politics. It's all about the states, not the nation. Texas and Alabama could go 100% red tomorrow and shift the shit out of national polls, but it wouldn't change the election one bit. Meanwhile, ElectoralVote.com notes that
Hrmn, maybe USA Today was just getting its news straight from the DrudgeReport again.
One should note that according to the Zogby table above, neither president is a winner. This is because a candidate needs 270 votes to win. And, yes, it is possible for both candidates to get 269 votes and tie. If that happens, Joe Grossberg's blog lets us know what would happen:
I have a feeling I know what would happen... The courts would decide (again). Wouldn't that be funny if the courts picked a president twice in a row? Well, not "ha ha" funny. Well, not funny at all. ¶ 1:15 PM
Sep 21 |
Sep 07 | Aug 23 | Aug 03 | Jul 26 | Jul 10 | Jun 20 | Jun 06 | May 23 | |
Bush | 241 | 222 | 214 | 215 | 220 | 205 | 285 | 242 | 218 |
Kerry | 264 | 273 | 286 | 291 | 275 | 322 | 253 | 296 | 320 |
That's funny, it seems I recently read, "Bush clear leader in poll" on the cover of USA Today. (I don't actually buy the USA Today, but do catch the headlines in their newspaper boxes occasionally.) Of course, you and I and USA Today all realize that national polls mean squat in American politics. It's all about the states, not the nation. Texas and Alabama could go 100% red tomorrow and shift the shit out of national polls, but it wouldn't change the election one bit. Meanwhile, ElectoralVote.com notes that
The big news today is that Kerry is once again ahead in the electoral college by dint of his edging ahead in Florida (49% to 48%) and New Jersey (47% to 43% among RVs).
Hrmn, maybe USA Today was just getting its news straight from the DrudgeReport again.
One should note that according to the Zogby table above, neither president is a winner. This is because a candidate needs 270 votes to win. And, yes, it is possible for both candidates to get 269 votes and tie. If that happens, Joe Grossberg's blog lets us know what would happen:
Short answer: the Representatives from each state vote, and whoever gets a majority wins.
What happens if the states are a 50-50 tie? No fucking clue.
The scary part is that, with the exception of Kerry's small lead in Florida, this is exactly what current projections show.
I have a feeling I know what would happen... The courts would decide (again). Wouldn't that be funny if the courts picked a president twice in a row? Well, not "ha ha" funny. Well, not funny at all. ¶ 1:15 PM
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As you may already be aware, electoral-vote.com tallies all of the new state polls every day and calculates an "if-the-election-were-held-tomorrow" winner. Today there's a good post about some possible end-game scenarios, and in the FAQ it describes what happens if there's a tie. It's the House of Representatives which chooses the new President in case of a tie, and unless the Dems can get a majority in the House on November 2 (which is very, very unlikely), that means Bush is the new President. And if the vote in the House is tied, who gets to pick? That's right, everybody's favorite Dick -- Cheney.
The site has a ton of great resources and some pretty graphs to look at. Definitely worth checking out.
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The site has a ton of great resources and some pretty graphs to look at. Definitely worth checking out.
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